Background
The agriculture market in Uganda was valued at USD 4.07 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 6.21 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.20%. This growth trajectory is supported by government initiatives aimed at modernizing agriculture, such as the Parish Development Model and the Agricultural Credit Facility, which focus on enhancing productivity and market access. Uganda’s agricultural exports have shown remarkable performance, with coffee, cocoa, and tobacco leading the charge. In February 2025, coffee export earnings more than doubled, reaching $167.68 million, up from $82.56 million in the same month the previous year. Similarly, cocoa exports experienced a substantial increase, with receipts jumping by 164.4% to $68.7 million.
These trends highlight the sector’s potential to contribute significantly to foreign exchange earnings and rural incomes. Despite these positive developments, challenges persist. The sector’s growth is impeded by factors such as limited mechanization, post-harvest losses, and market access constraints. Addressing these issues is crucial for unlocking the full potential of Uganda’s agricultural sector and achieving sustainable economic growth.
Agriculture Commodity Markets and Trade
Between September 2024 and February 2025, Uganda’s agricultural commodity markets were shaped by significant price fluctuations, closely tied to seasonal harvests, rainfall performance, and regional demand. In bimodal areas, the delayed onset of the second season rains resulted in replanting, lower yields, and prolonged food price pressures. Throughout October and November, staple food prices for beans, maize, and groundnuts rose sharply, with increases of up to 20% compared to the previous year, largely due to supply shortages. In November 2024, food inflation rose by 0.6%, up from 0.5% recorded in October, reflecting the ongoing market strain.
Although December brought a partial influx of second season harvests from the western and central regions, market relief was moderate, and staple prices remained above five-year averages. Limited cross-border demand from neighboring countries like Kenya and South Sudan partly eased domestic market pressure, but high local consumption maintained elevated price levels. December festivities saw livestock prices surge, particularly for beef and goat meat, before declining slightly in January 2025. However, even with the arrival of fresh harvests, food inflation pressures persisted.
In January 2025, food prices in bimodal areas remained high, with beans retailing above UGX 5,000/kg in Kampala, driven by lingering scarcity and school reopening expenses. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics reported that annual food inflation remained steady at 2.6% in December 2024, but price pressures began to mount again by February 2025, as dry conditions worsened. Headline inflation nationally reached 3.7% in February, primarily driven by food crop inflation, notably in dry beans, matoke, and green peppers. Despite some ongoing harvests, the structural shortage of key staples in bimodal areas kept food access strained, particularly among poorer households.
In unimodal areas, particularly Karamoja, inflationary pressures were even more acute. Following the completion of the main harvest in September 2024, temporary improvements in food security were recorded, with staple food prices declining by 13% to 41% below the five-year average. However, this trend reversed rapidly. By November, cereal stocks had already begun depleting, triggering sharp price increases for beans, maize, and sorghum, which rose by between 6% and 36% across monitored markets.
Food inflation in Karamoja increased significantly as households faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by February 2025, compounded by lean season pressures and limited market supplies. Despite some livestock price gains during December, income opportunities remained constrained. Without sustained food aid, household resilience remained extremely weak, and rising food costs deepened food insecurity across the unimodal belt.
To learn more about the seasonal market performance of the second season of 2024, average retail market price performances, the impact of seasonal performance on food security, and recommendations, download this publication (Seasonal Market Outlook 2025 – Issue No.4).